Many believe that the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant for Putin is futile. Who has the power to arrest a head of state overseeing more than 5,000 nuclear warheads? After all, even the Sudanese genocidal figure Omar al-Bashir, who evaded international justice for over a decade, remains uncaptured. On the contrary, he travels the world extensively, despite the Sudanese government’s promises to hand him over to The Hague.

The chances of seeing Putin behind bars are slim, and the charges will likely have little influence over the war’s progression. However, the ICC’s decision will redefine Russia’s relationship with the rest of the world and significantly impact its domestic politics. For Europe’s political elite, the “Global South,” and within Russia itself, the new reality is a future without Putin.

Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Moscow, intended to launch his Global Security Initiative on the world stage, is now tainted. “Does China’s global security equate to condoning war criminals?” many will ask as they see XJP shaking hands with Putin in the Kremlin.

As long as Putin remains in power, normalizing relations with the 123 signatories of the Rome Statute - which includes all of Europe, most African nations, all of Latin America except Cuba and Nicaragua, and even Tajikistan - will be impossible, deepening Russia’s international isolation.

Especially for Europeans, this decision means that returning to the status quo ante bellum, as some government leaders and industry captains had hoped, is not possible while Putin stays in power.

Similarly, Russian elites who had hoped to at least partially return to their privileged relationship with Europe now understand that their time is over with Putin being labeled a war criminal.

Perpetrators of the crimes in places like Bucha, Hostomel, Borodianka, Mariupol, and other locations that have suffered from the brutality of Russian occupation forces, have come to understand that not even the most potent powers in Russia can shield them from justice.

The international assessment that Putin has engaged in war crimes holds significance in the United States, even though it hasn’t ratified the Rome Statute. For the American right-wing, Putin represented a leader blending modernity with traditional value virtues. His rejection of LGBTQ rights and his supposed championing of Christianity as core values of the Russian state were seen as models. Yet, the arrest warrant for Putin, especially for crimes against children, will make it harder for them to tout his authoritarianism as virtuous, considering this faction claims to advocate for the welfare of children.

Furthermore, this decision pierces through the smokescreen of Russian propaganda, clarifying the true nature of the adversary humanity faces.

Maduro, The Next in Line?

In Venezuela, one doesn’t need an ICC warrant to know that there’s no future with Maduro. A decade of economic decline, massive migration, and a humanitarian crisis are more than enough to label his administration as the worst Venezuela has ever experienced. Nicolas Maduro also holds the dubious distinction of being the first Latin American president under ICC investigation for crimes against humanity. On April 20th, The Hague will present a report on Maduro’s human rights abuses.

Chavez, paraphrasing Rousseau, used to say: “Between the powerful and the weak, freedom oppresses. It’s the law of the jungle, the mightiest prevail. Only the law liberates. Only just law liberates. Only revolutionary law frees the poor and the nations. Revolution is the law.”

And that’s precisely the point the ICC arrest warrant against Maduro underscores: that “no one should feel they can commit genocide or crimes against humanity with impunity,” as stated by prosecutor Khan. No one in the chain of command behind these crimes should feel immune, even if they sit behind Miraflores’s desk.

An international arrest warrant against Nicolas will be seen with hope in a Venezuela desperate for justice as a foundation for peace.

Maduro’s supporters might scoff at such measures and voice defiance, much like Putin does today. But their laughter is hollow, for history shows, as seen in cases like the Nazis in Nuremberg, Milosevic in Kosovo, and Kambanda in Rwanda, that justice, sooner or later, always prevails.