NATO StratComm conference 2023

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the spark of a new global geopolitical contest was ignited.

While it is easy to find similarities with the Cold War, it distinguishes itself through a fluidity typical of our times, where competition for information is crucial, and battles in the physical and digital realms are similarly important.

Although principles like “deterrence” have resonated since then, the theater of operations has expanded. Today, cyberattacks can disrupt economies, hybrid wars blur the lines between allies and adversaries, diplomacy is theatrical, and narrative battles are waged on social networks and in households worldwide.

With Ukraine on the counteroffensive, Riga brought together leaders in strategic communication, diplomats, academics, and private sector experts from June 7 to 8 to analyze the pulse of the information dispute between authoritarianism and Western democracies.

The Baltic Region: Cognitive Frontier The significant increase in global rearmament, primarily due to Russian aggression, presents a significant and serious threat to the Baltic and Eastern European countries, historically tethered to imperial Russia first and later to the USSR. This region is currently embroiled in a complex hybrid conflict, as stated by Latvia’s Prime Minister during his intervention. Consequently, a primary objective for these countries is to bolster the cognitive resilience of their societies against external influence campaigns by strengthening their communication capacities, all the while upholding key democratic pillars such as freedom of speech and the press

In this regard, lessons are drawn from former Soviet republics, such as Moldova, a model of resilience against Russian influence campaigns in contrast to Slovakia, a victim of its manipulations; and Georgia, a constantly disputed space.

Ukraine: Communication for All Ukraine’s communication strategy, effective since the beginning of the invasion, received unanimous recognition at the conference. While the skills of Zelensky and his team were praised, their success lies not only in narrative but also in the connection forged between the government and the people.

Ukrainian public policy in communications, aims to empower citizens, equip them with tools to face the dangers of war, assign them responsibility for their own and their community’s security, and invite them to participate in the information battle as an integral part of defence. It should be noted, that Ukraine’s strategic narrative does not originate from a government desk but from the daily lives of every Ukrainian. It consists of stories of resistance, resilience, and patriotism that generate synergy between the government and the people that resonates globally. Success is presented as a collective achievement of a country that chose to resist the invasion together in unity.

Deterrence 2.0: Strategic Communication and Innovation The invasion of Ukraine revives nuclear armament and boosts military spending. The concept of deterrence, now extended to strategic communication and the innovation ecosystem, strengthens in line with the new NATO-2022 conceptual map.

As a result, NATO, mirroring the United States, starts its own “decoupling” from China in a move that aims to restrict the adversary’s access to essential technologies crucial for the advancement of their strategic weaponry, while simultaneously, NATO seeks to fortify its own innovation ecosystem.

EU: Tools Against the Hybrid Threat The EU also announced the deployment of its “cyber toolbox,” an initiative to built resilience in member states against various digital threats, from cyberattacks to influence campaigns. The initiative, led by Benedikta von Seherr-Thoss, Director of the European External Action Service, aims to counter Russia’s attempt to sow instability and undermine the alliance’s cohesion.

In this context, former Swedish Defense Minister Peter Hultquist points out the adversary’s constant adaptability. He points out Russia’s relentless dedication in its cognitive warfare through the infiltration of Western societies through puppet organizations, funded demonstrations, hired lobbyists, and cyberattacks.

For him, the resurgence of the old slogan “Lieber Rot als Tot” (“better read than dead”) in countries like Germany or Italy, demonstrates the impact of Russian influence campaigns and brings out the need for unity to counteract the aggressor’s campaigns.

Russia: Mental Decolonization Specially enlightening was the intervention by Kiril Martinov, editor of Nova Gazeta Europa, about the internal situation in Russia. The political scientist argues that confusion reigns among the average Russian citizen, particularly regarding their identity, battered by the country’s historical fluctuations: the fall of the USSR, the unchecked neoliberalism of the ’90s, the current attempt to revive the tsarist regime, and now the new blow of the war of aggression.

Faced with identity confusion, a resigned mentality prevails that prioritizes daily survival over any other consideration. Martinov argues strongly that “Russia needs mental decolonization: exposing the false identity and its lubricants: corruption and propaganda.”

According to Martinov, Russia’s future largely hangs on the outcome of the war, but in any scenario, it appears bleak: “The path to its reconstruction will be long and difficult.”

The Unfathomable “Global South” The “Global South” was a recurring point during the conference. The alliance’s message there seems lost. In contrast, the authoritarian bloc has built effective communication networks integrated into their political decision-making systems, producing a constantly adapting narrative in tune with the cultural specificities of those countries. The voice of the authoritarian bloc in the “Global South” is heard clearly, often in contrast to the alliance’s narrative.

The alliance identifies two main obstacles in reaching these audiences: first, the term “Global South” encompasses such diversity that it challenges work under a manageable conceptual framework. Additionally, the alliance has not been effective in constructing a discourse that connects with the particular cultural sensitivities of these regions, nor in articulating effective platforms for its distribution.

To tackle these challenges, the alliance’s strategy looks to replicate the campaign model they plan for Europe: support their messaging through local influencers who, from various social media platforms, can create an effective vehicle to convey consistent messages to critical audiences.

In Conclusion: Dynamic Adaptation Finally, NATO shows to be actively adapting to the challenges of a “geopolitics of fluid and diverse spaces”, including virtual ones. A renewed concept of deterrence arises to incorporate strategic communications and innovation ecosystems as an integral part of its doctrine. NATO nations are actively working on strategies to enhance the cognitive resilience and communication capabilities within their societies, which are considered vital pillars of their plans to counter foreign aggression. Social media influencers will be the tool used in these efforts.

At the same time, measures are underway to decouple China from its supply chains, with the goal of preserving its technological advantage in the development of strategic weaponry. In the invasion of Ukraine, indisputably, lies the epicenter of the new geopolitical conflict, although tensions also extend to the countries that once formed the Soviet Union, its sphere of influence, and all of Europe.

The “Global South” is perceived as a territory to conquer for the alliance’s strategic initiatives within its new deterrence framework.

In the face of the fluidity and uncertainty of the conflict, NATO countries seems to have found renewed dynamism in addressing the clash between democracies and dictatorships